2024 Crop Harvest Progress
Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship (IDALS) reports 92 percent and 98 percent of the state of Iowa corn and soybean harvest, respectively, is now complete (https://iowaagriculture.gov/ ), both considerably ahead of last year. Anecdotally, while driving around NW Iowa, very few cornfields remain to harvest (no soybean fields found), again both reflecting drier conditions and lower yields.

2024-25 Market Outlook
Corn:
Based upon the most recent WASDE release (November 8, 2024), ending stocks are lower, following a reduction in 2024 production (from yields). Demand is unchanged. With supply falling and no change to use USDA is projecting season-average received by producers of $4.10 / bushel (unchanged from last month; 45 cents lower than one year ago). The foreign 2024/25 grain outlook is for higher corn production; while lower ending stocks are forecast mostly behind a decline in China. NOTE: the Iowa operating breakeven (traditional corn on soybeans rotation) was forecast at $4.46 per bushel.

Soybeans:
Based upon the most recent WASDE release (November 8, 2024), the 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and demand include lower production, exports, crush and ending stocks. The largest production declines were Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota. The U.S season-average soybean price forecast is $10.80/bushel for 2024/25 (unchanged from last month; $1.60 / bushel lower than one year ago). NOTE: the Iowa operating breakeven (traditional soybeans on corn) was forecast $11.24 per bushel.

Protein/Eggs and Milk:
The 2024 outlook for proteins and milk continues the recent volatility.
Production is projected higher for all beef and poultry. Pork and egg production are both forecast lower. Beef prices are projected higher; pork prices lower. Beef exports continue to be robust behind stronger demand. Pork exports are projected lower as the result of production pullbacks. Poultry and egg prices are projected higher from a combination of current tighter supplies and the lower production outlook.
Milk production is forecast modestly higher based upon lower cow numbers, but improved output/cow. The 2024 all-milk price of $22.75 per cwt is lower, still reflecting higher recent prices for butter; however the all-milk price is forecast at $22.85 for 2025. Except for 2024 declining butter prices, Class I-II-III cheese, non-fat dry milk and whey prices are projected higher based upon tighter inventories (except butter) and stronger demand (foreign and domestic).
Sources: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0924.pdf ; https://www.cheesereporter.com/pricemilk.htm
https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
For more information contact Gary Wright, Farm Management Specialist, at gdwright@iastate.edu or 712-223-1574.